Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 14.380967 16.448482 18.677167 21.254310 24.148281 27.293608 30.966810
2025-02-23 11.148149 13.906608 17.112595 21.098446 25.904221 31.493961 38.469116
2025-03-02 9.682045 12.766855 16.527605 21.420457 27.585292 35.059386 44.767285
2025-03-09 8.426400 11.682698 15.826700 21.440796 28.794563 38.039428 50.472369
2025-03-16 7.381217 10.698128 15.081901 21.234448 29.569337 40.379539 55.355917
2025-03-23 6.667674 10.060522 14.700153 21.421113 30.802529 43.309776 61.095013
2025-03-30 6.231023 9.748681 14.708393 22.098592 32.691222 47.159950 68.209925
2025-04-06 5.602793 9.086797 14.149813 21.905946 33.314595 49.269403 72.999838
2025-04-13 4.826257 8.119761 13.055115 20.830174 32.567605 49.372721 74.922424
2025-04-20 4.538138 7.877380 13.013342 21.297772 34.079879 52.743734 81.642125
2025-04-27 4.265976 7.631352 12.938626 21.694750 35.487710 56.005600 88.326454
2025-05-04 3.911609 7.214749 12.557422 21.574543 36.076946 58.054314 93.272089
2025-05-11 3.548482 6.756765 12.084086 21.288703 36.412152 59.769933 97.858647
2025-05-18 3.290226 6.457031 11.847530 21.368929 37.328474 62.417368 103.996991
2025-05-25 3.087677 6.235550 11.720916 21.612955 38.506890 65.506494 110.931772
2025-06-01 2.871954 5.968607 11.492429 21.661226 39.352221 68.089155 117.158071
2025-06-08 2.636600 5.641226 11.129152 21.443603 39.723954 69.904255 122.202318
2025-06-15 2.482224 5.455307 11.004915 21.635133 40.796273 72.900522 129.279176
2025-06-22 2.406278 5.417758 11.149832 22.317589 42.753257 77.444401 139.089977
2025-06-29 2.223781 5.145901 10.831895 22.123597 43.138117 79.337998 144.517333
2025-07-06 1.952569 4.661879 10.067728 21.038035 41.847294 78.288389 144.877712
2025-07-13 1.880189 4.596331 10.119080 21.509881 43.426336 82.279075 154.056890
2025-07-20 1.804554 4.516421 10.134819 21.910409 44.887394 86.113656 163.099237